Matthew Famiglietti

Welcome! I am a PhD candidate in Economics at Yale University. I will be on the 2026–2027 academic job market.

My research interests are in financial economics, monetary policy, and macroeconomics.

Job Market Paper

• Monetary Policy and Endogenous Asset Supply
  PDF

  Abstract

  Monetary policy operates through long-term interest rates, making yield curve responses a common measure of policy efficacy. Yet long-term rates are equilibrium prices, determined jointly by investor demand and asset supply. Using high-frequency monetary shocks and bond-level data, I show that aggregate corporate bond supply responds to policy. When corporate balance sheets are strong, bond supply and investment respond elastically, while yield curve pass-through is dampened. I develop a production model in which firms choose capital investment and issue long-term bonds subject to financial frictions, and long-term bonds are priced by risk-averse investors in a partially segmented market. Endogenous bond supply generates substitution between real and financial transmission which varies with the corporate sector’s financial state. Quantitatively, an issuance-constrained economy features limited, delayed investment responses and a 34% larger long-term yield response than the steady-state economy.

Working Papers

• Monetary Transmission in Equity Markets: Evidence from Financial Intermediaries with Pranav Garg (2026) PDF

  Abstract

  We show that heterogeneous equity flows across financial intermediaries amplify monetary policy transmission to asset prices. We find that mutual funds with performance-sensitive investors experience outflows after contractionary monetary shocks, triggering forced equity sales. Banks have funding that is insensitive to recent performance and therefore absorb these sales and provide liquidity. This intermediary-level heterogeneity aggregates meaningfully: stocks held by more performance-sensitive investors exhibit larger price declines following monetary tightening. To explain these patterns, we develop an intermediary asset pricing model where heterogeneous intermediaries manage portfolios for investors with performance-sensitive flows, highlighting a novel mechanism of monetary transmission to equities.

  Presented at:
  SGF Conference Zurich 2026, MFA Annual Meeting 2026, 19th International Behavioral Finance Conference at the University of Chicago 2025, AFA Posters 2025, Midwest Macro Meetings at Purdue University 2024.

  Award:
  Doctoral Symposium Outstanding Paper Award, MFA Annual Meeting 2026.

• Searching for Job Security: Occupational Choice and Skill Mismatch with Xilin Yuan (2026), PDF

  Abstract

  Occupations differ significantly in job loss risk. Combining data from the CPS, O*NET, and the NLSY, we present three facts. First, job separation risk is heterogeneous across occupations. Second, manually (cognitively) intensive occupations feature more (less) separation risk. Third, workers with greater cognitive (manual) ability sort away from (into) manually (cognitively) intensive occupations, conditional on worker attributes. We interpret these facts through a search model with multidimensional skill sorting. The key assumption is that occupational skill requirements jointly determine match output and separation risk. Skill-correlated risk affects job-acceptance sets, inducing workers to sacrifice match quality for job security. This can weaken (strengthen) sorting along the manual (cognitive) dimension and generate asymmetric cross-skill sorting patterns. The decentralized economy can be inefficient, because workers value job security more than the constrained planner, generating skill mismatch. Quantitatively, the decentralized economy produces 0.56 percent less output than the planner’s allocation. A simple skill-based unemployment insurance policy can restore half of the output loss.

• Amazon HQ2: A Tale of Shocks to Housing Price Expectations
  with Carlos Garriga and Eugenio J. Miravete (2026), PDF

  Abstract

  Substantially Revised Draft Coming Soon!

  The measurement of the contribution of expectations to house prices remains unresolved in the macro-housing literature. We leverage a novel quasi-natural experiment using Amazon’s unanticipated split location decision for its second headquarters to identify the impact of this expectations shock on local house prices, seller expectations and market liquidity. We find that listed and transacted prices increased on average 7.9% and 7.5%, respectively in the six months following the announcement. Furthermore, price gains were common across all market segments, and the announcement had no effect on rents. We develop a tractable general equilibrium macro housing model featuring mortgages and endogenous housing supply able to replicate the response of the price-rent ratio to an expectations shock. The model quantifies the differences between credit and expectations shocks and generates testable predictions for identifying the nature of a housing price shock. Our empirical and theoretical results provide a benchmark test for structural models that attempt to incorporate shocks to price expectations.

Publications

• The Impact of Health and Economic Policies on the Spread of COVID-19 and Economic Activity
  with Fernando Leibovici
  European Economic Review, Volume 144, May 2022
  Article

• Can Risk Explain the Profitability of Technical Trading in Currency Markets?
  with Yuliya Ivanova, Christopher J. Neely, and Paul Weller
  Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 110, February 2021, 102285
  Article

Selected Works in Progress

• Passive Money and Asset Volatility with Pranav Garg
• No Surprises in Monetary Policy with Paul Fontanier